Energy system analysis and climate change


Decision making in the energy sector requires a systemic view of the future development of the energy demand and supply structures taking account of the environment and climate change.

Today energy markets have to deal with a quickly evolving regulatory framework and multiple requirements of stakeholders. Complex interactions among the driving forces behind these markets require an analysis by powerful tools. Models for scenario analyses of electricity and heat markets considering environmental targets and policy constraints (e.g. renewable energy quota) are developed. EIFER uses both optimization and simulation methods. As an optimization tool, we apply “The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System” (TIMES). A simulation model based on the System Dynamics methodology has also been developed as a user-friendly tool for decision makers.
Climate change has become an important issue for energy suppliers. EIFER works with its partners to identify vulnerabilities and to quantify possible impacts due to climate change such as the effects of rising air temperatures on electricity load curves. Furthermore, the impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological events on critical energy infrastructures regarding production, supply and distribution are analyzed. Adaptation measures such as a GIS-based risk management method for flood events are specifically conceived for the energy sector.